PhilinYuma,
I'm confused. All I am saying is that a short enough photoperiod will induce a diapause and I don't think temperature could be the primary inducer since that would be so unreliable. The reason being how warm the temperatures can stay, in the southwest, well into October and even November. Basing diapause on day length would be ultra reliable since that is extremely consistent.
All it would take would be one extra long warm season in an area to kill out an entire species in the area if entering diapause were based on temperature alone. Using temperature to break diapause makes a lot of sense. But not as a reason to enter diapause in the south west United States.
Scott
Perhaps I wasn't clear. First let's look at whether temperature or photoperiod is the better strategy for ooth survival I agree completely that photoperiod is a constant and temperature can vary substantially from year to year, and if I were a pregnant mantis, I would definitely go for the former in order to give my babies the best possible chance in life (climate adaptation). I would also lay them in a secluded spot where birds couldn't find them and perhaps guard them from predatory and parasitic insects (predator-driven adaptation), but I am not.
When a genetic mutation takes place, it either kills the host, makes no difference, or gives the host a survival edge that causes it to succeed better than hosts of the unmutated gene in the following year. If that trend continues for enough years, it will be carried by more and more individuals. However, if the condition that it benifited from changes abruptly, like a substantial rise in the winter temperature, the population will be dramatically reduced in the following year, and if that trend continues it might die out altogether in that area. If this anomaly obtains over a limited area and the winter temperature then drops back to its original range, the area will be repopulated by surviving parapatric conspecifics, or, if an allopatric popluation, the area may become dominated by an endogenous competitor. If, however, the anomoly is sufficiently widespread and no mutation occurs that will cause adaptation to it, the species, like 99% of all other living creature over time, I understand, will become extinct. And that's the way it is. There is no "plan" or more reasonable strategy where there is no reason. Sadly, we can see environmental indications of such a warming trend already, and if the "six degrees" scenario becomes reality, it won't only be the mantids that disappear, stable photoperiod or not.
But neither your nor my amateur theorizing, though great fun, will make the slightest difference to what is actually happening. What we need is an Elegant Experiment.
[Hiatus, while the author meditates]
O.K. I dont have an elegant experiment, but I do have a rough and ready one. My second ooth has not yet been exposed to a period of cold or been taken outside to experience a shortening photoperiod, which will reach its minimum around December 22nd.
I shall leave the original ooth to weather outside with a normal photoperiod, and tomorrow, I shall replace my work lamp in the patio with a flood which will provide the second ooth with either natural or artificial light for 18 hours a day, or four more hours per day than in May, when most ooths should have hatched. The results will not "prove" anything, but a successful hatch will be consistent with the temperature theory and failure will be consistent with the photoperiod theory "all other factors being equal" (fat chance). I suspect that I shall be dead before I can generate a sufficiently large N to be statistically significant, but if a few more members of the board would like to spend some time and effort in duplicating or improving the experiment.... Any takers?
O.K. then, how about this? How many members have successfully hatched an ooth of this species that was kept indoors and recieved light beyond daylight hours? Was it refrigerated or not? An ooth that was maintained in an environment that recieved a consistent ammount of light and still hatched would tend to negate the photoperiod contention, but an otherwise unaccountable failure to hatch under these conditions would support it.
Is this fun or not!